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The Basic

Some necessary terms for your first start in the prediction market

To navigate prediction markets like Buzzing effectively, you need to speak the language of the "crowd." Here are the essential terms categorized by how they affect your trades.

1. Market Mechanics

  • Contract: The basic unit of trade. A contract represents one possible outcome (e.g., a "Yes" or "No" share).
  • Implied Probability: The percentage chance of an event happening as suggested by the market price. If a contract costs $0.72, the market is signaling a 72% probability.
  • Resolution Source (Oracle): The definitive source of truth used to decide the winner (e.g., an official election result or a specific news outlet).
  • Settlement: The final process where the market "closes," and winners receive their $1.00 payout per share.

2. Trading Terms

  • Order Book: A digital list of all open "Buy" and "Sell" orders. It shows you the depth of the market—how many people want to trade at what price.
  • Automated Market Maker (AMM): A smart contract (robot) that always provides a price to buy or sell, even if no other humans are trading. This ensures you can always enter or exit a position.
  • Liquidity: How "thick" the market is. High liquidity means you can buy many shares without changing the price much. Low liquidity means a single big trade could spike the price.
  • Slippage: The difference between the price you expect to pay and the price you actually pay when you click buy, often caused by low liquidity.

3. Strategy & Risk

  • Buy Low Sell High: Buying a "Yes" contract on one platform for $0.60 and selling it for $0.65 to earn the difference.
  • Hedge: Placing a bet against your own interest to reduce risk. Example: Betting "Yes" on a recession so that if it happens, your market winnings cover your real-world losses.
  • Wisdom of the Crowd: The theory that the collective guess of thousands of people with "skin in the game" is more accurate than any single expert.
  • Informed Trader: A participant who trades based on specialized knowledge or data that the rest of the market hasn't priced in yet.

Pro Tip: In prediction markets, time is money. Prices often move seconds after news breaks. If you're "buzzing" around a market, keep an eye on the Spread—the gap between the highest Buy and lowest Sell price; a narrow spread usually means a healthy, active market.
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